Dashain's first day brought jamara, tika prep and a flash flood. Washington announced a ceasefire that one side says it learned about from the news. And Wall Street faces its first real earnings test. Monday, buckle up.

On Sunday morning, President Trump posted that an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" between Russia and Ukraine was in effect "immediately," saying both sides had agreed. Hours earlier, he had said Ukraine should find a new leader who can make a deal, and blamed Kyiv's strikes on Russian refineries for high diesel prices.

President Zelensky said he hadn't been told, but Ukraine will stop hitting Russian refineries if Russia stops striking Ukraine's energy grid. He added that Ukraine could hold elections if Russia agrees to a 60-day total ceasefire. France's Emmanuel Macron and the EU's Ursula von der Leyen backed an energy truce. Moscow's position wasn't clear at press time. It's Trump's second such announcement: neither side ever confirmed the first, in mid-September.

Why it matters: Ukraine claims its drones have knocked out about 51% of Russia's refining capacity, while Russian strikes target Ukraine's grid as winter nears. A real truce could ease fuel prices. A Truth Social post is not one yet.

Nepal angle: diesel prices filter through India to Nepal Oil Corporation's price list. Watch the next revision.

🌊 What happened

Early Sunday, a debris-laden flood surged down the Budhi Gandaki River in northern Gorkha, after a landslide in Chumchet reportedly blocked a tributary. An estimated 35 to 40 houses were swept away, along with several bridges. The flood also destroyed the construction camp and equipment of the 341-megawatt Budhi Gandaki hydropower project.

🚨 The toll so far

🛣️ If you're travelling: the bridge at Arughat linking Gorkha and Dhading was damaged, with one section washed away. Expect detours and check before you go.

🔥 Cooking gas: the LP Gas Industry Association is running special cylinder-exchange points at six locations in Kathmandu Valley from today through October 17, 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., covering 13 brands.

🧭 What you can do

*The data presented below are from the official sites of NEPSE, NASDAQ and London Bullion Market Association respectively.

🇳🇵 NEPSE Reopens today at 11:00 a.m. after Friday's 2,591.80 close. Last week: +0.18%. Government offices close October 17 to 23 for Dashain, so check the exchange's holiday notice before planning trades.

🇺🇸 Nasdaq (Wall Street) Friday: 27,366.17. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%. This week's test: bank earnings Tuesday, US inflation (CPI) on Wednesday, TSMC on Thursday.

🥇 Gold About $4,194 per ounce. Comex gold futures rose 1.3% last week to $4,216.30. In Nepal, fine gold rose Rs 800 on Sunday to Rs 296,500 per tola.

🥈 Silver About $60.70 per ounce. Comex silver gained about 1% last week to $61.05. In Nepal, silver rose Rs 35 per tola on Sunday.

The Pentagon has raised the official US troop death toll tied to the Iran war to 21, according to the Washington Post, including two noncombat deaths. That follows President Trump's pledge that America won't attack Iran before next month's midterm elections. Yet the Times of Israel reports that US officials have prepared options to renew the war, including three days of intense strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened security officials Sunday amid concerns about escalation.

Why it matters: the war has driven the fuel prices that are weighing on Trump's party. For Nepal, the stake is bigger: hundreds of thousands of Nepalis work across the Gulf, and renewed fighting would put workers and remittances at risk.

Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at $0.10 per million input tokens and $0.50 per million output tokens for prompts up to 100,000 tokens, roughly 75% cheaper than its predecessor and level with OpenAI's GPT-6 Luna on price. OpenAI, meanwhile, rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT tiers with "Intelligent UI," which puts tappable buttons, charts, forms and editable diagrams inside conversations.

Why it matters: when capable models cost cents, building AI tools stops being a big-company game. For Nepali developers and startups, the barrier shifts from budget to ideas.

(Disclosure: Anthropic makes the assistant that helped produce this newsletter.)

Stocks sit near highs even with Brent crude around $100, the 10-year yield above 5% and a Fed that is raising rates. The rally depends on earnings: analysts expect S&P 500 profits to grow about 29% from a year ago.

The checkpoints: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday, with JPMorgan expected to post about $5.90 to $5.95 a share on roughly $51 billion in revenue. US inflation data lands Wednesday. A hot reading could revive talk of an October rate hike, and traders are eyeing December. TSMC's results on Thursday will show whether chip demand really cooled.

Why it matters: higher US rates mean a pricier dollar, and Nepal pays for fuel in dollars.

Do you check official flood or weather alerts before travelling or camping near rivers?

Reply with A, B or C:

Answers just below. No peeking. 👇

📖 Read: the Kathmandu Post's "Five things to know about the Budhi Gandaki flash flood."

🎧 Listen: any short explainer on how landslides block rivers and trigger flash floods.

📱 Follow: NDRRMA's official channels for flood warnings along the Budhi Gandaki and Trishuli.

Landslide dam (say it: LAND-slyde dam)

Meaning: a natural blockage of a river by landslide debris, which can burst and send a flash flood downstream.

Example: "Officials suspect a landslide dam in Chumchet held back the water before the Budhi Gandaki surged."

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