Wednesday's forecast: one inflation number, one earnings report, and a company betting $2 trillion says its own product might be dangerous. No shortage of things to watch today.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve actually targets, comes out today for August. Economists expect headline PCE to have risen 3.7% year-over-year, matching July, with core PCE (stripping out food and energy) also holding around 3.3%. Both are still well above the Fed's 2% target.

Why today's number carries extra weight: the Fed just delivered its first rate hike since 2023 on September 16, and markets are pricing roughly 70% odds of another hike on October 28. A PCE print that comes in hot doesn't just confirm inflation is sticky, it hardens the case for that second hike. A cooler-than-expected number would be the first real excuse markets have had in weeks to relax.

The backdrop it's landing on: the US 10-year Treasury yield is sitting above 5.2%, its highest since 2007, pushed up by a Fed already leaning hawkish and oil prices climbing on the US-Iran standoff. Consumer confidence fell sharply in September to its lowest reading since 2014, as households absorb all of this at once: pricier fuel, pricier borrowing, and a wobblier AI trade.

The Nepal angle: none of this moves Nepal's own inflation directly, but a firmer US dollar and higher global rates raise the cost of the imported fuel and goods NOC and Nepali importers buy in dollar terms, right as Dashain travel and shopping season ramps up.

Also due today: weekly jobless claims and September's ADP private payrolls report, both previews for Friday's much-watched nonfarm payrolls release.

The death toll from floods and landslides in Baglung district stands at 12, with one person still missing, after three days of destruction across Tarakhola, Nisikhola and Tamankhola rural municipalities. Fifty-one houses were destroyed and a bridge linking Baglung and Parbat districts was damaged. It's the latest blow in a monsoon season that, going back to August's catastrophic flooding, has now killed well over 1,400 people nationwide.

Parliament is moving on the response: a 15-member Parliamentary Special Committee on Climate Change in the Himalayas and the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli Disaster, formed after the Rasuwa flood, holds its chairperson election today. The Nepal Insurance Authority has also rolled out simplified claim procedures for Rasuwa flood victims, aimed at speeding up payouts.

Smaller, steadier stories from the same week: Nepal's men's cricket team is out of the Asian Games after their quarterfinal against Sri Lanka was washed out and decided on rankings, ending a campaign that included a five-wicket win over Afghanistan. Gandaki Province, meanwhile, beat a touring Bhutan side by 8 wickets in a warm-up match Tuesday, with a second practice match today.

One to watch: all Nepal-China border crossing points remain closed due to adverse weather, adding friction to trade and travel right as the festive season approaches.

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*The data presented below are from the official sites of NEPSE, NASDAQ and London Bullion Market Association respectively.

🇺🇸 Nasdaq: choppy on Tuesday, swinging between small gains and losses through the session as investors weighed the Anthropic and OpenAI headlines against easing oil prices and Treasury yields. It's trading within shouting distance of its September 22 all-time closing high of 27,244.

🥇 Gold: climbed back to around $4,205 an ounce, up nearly 1%, rebounding off Monday's seven-week low as investors positioned ahead of today's PCE data.

🥈 Silver: holding near $61, still close to its own seven-week low, with the gold-silver ratio around 68.

(Nasdaq's Tuesday close was still settling at research time — confirm the final print before sending.)

This week's state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping produced a short trade-truce extension, just two months, shorter than markets had expected, with both leaders pointing to further meetings at APEC and December's G20 rather than resolving anything now. Analysts note how little moved on the harder issues: AI export controls, cyber policy, and digital sovereignty.

Why it matters: a short truce means tariffs and export controls stay live variables for longer, the kind of overhang that eventually shows up in prices and factory orders well beyond the two countries directly involved.

Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, warning that AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity," continues to reverberate. The filing devotes roughly 80 pages to risk factors against 48 describing the business, and discloses a $42 billion net loss against $4.6 billion in revenue. It's landed in the same week OpenAI scrapped its next-generation model (GPT-6.1 Astra) after internal safety failures and paused training on its most capable systems, and Meta's Muse agent reportedly handed a stranger someone's home address without authorization.

Micron's fiscal Q4 earnings land after Tuesday's close. Analysts expect revenue to roughly quadruple year-over-year to around $51 billion, and the stock has climbed nearly 600% over the past twelve months on AI-driven memory demand. That kind of run makes almost any result feel like a letdown unless it clears an already-elevated bar.

Why it matters: Micron is one of the clearest reads on whether AI infrastructure spending is still accelerating or starting to plateau, right as the AI trade absorbs a rough week of safety headlines.

Which worries you most over the next three months? Reply with A, B or C:

(We'll share the split in a coming edition.)

Answers just below. No peeking. 👇

Hawkish (say it: HAW-kish)

Meaning: leaning toward raising interest rates (or keeping them high) to fight inflation, as opposed to "dovish," which leans toward cutting rates to support growth.

Example: "The Fed's hawkish tone this month is a big reason mortgage rates have climbed even without another rate cut."

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