Tuesday, and Dashain week is moving. A ceasefire announced on social media is meeting the reality of overnight drone strikes. Wall Street's earnings season starts with the big banks. And Nepal's cricketers take the field in Oman this morning.

On Monday, President Zelensky said Ukraine learned of the "energy ceasefire" from the media and accused Russia of ignoring it. Speaking to the Warsaw Security Forum by video, he said Russia hit a power plant near Kharkiv shortly after President Trump's Sunday post, and struck again on Monday morning. "If Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, we will respond," he wrote on X. He repeated that Kyiv will stop hitting Russian refineries if Moscow stops hitting Ukraine's energy grid.

The Kremlin's answer was thin. It said only that "contacts are ongoing" and that more information would come in due course, according to Reuters. A White House official told Axios the deal Trump has in mind covers each side's attacks on oil refineries, and that he expects Zelensky to stick to it. Ukraine wants any truce to cover power plants too. This is Trump's second such announcement. A similar one in mid-September was never confirmed by either side.

Why it matters: the two sides don't agree on what "energy" means. Russia benefits if the truce covers only refineries. Ukraine, heading into winter, needs its grid covered.

Nepal angle: Nepal Oil Corporation prices follow Indian Oil's rates, which follow global diesel. A real truce would calm the market. A post alone won't.

⛽ Fuel prices held, for now

Nepal Oil Corporation kept retail fuel prices unchanged from October 1, even though Indian Oil's latest rates were higher: about Rs 20 more per litre for petrol and diesel, and Rs 81 more per LPG cylinder. The board cited the Bhotekoshi floods, the festival season and consumers' interests. The spokesperson said NOC will have to adjust prices if costs keep rising. NOC has also asked Indian Oil for at least 60,000 tonnes of LPG a month for six months to cover festival and winter demand.

🔥 Cooking gas

The LP Gas Industry Association's special cylinder-exchange points are running in six Kathmandu Valley locations through October 17, 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., covering 13 brands.

🚌 Travelling home

Bus ticket bookings are open for the festival rush. Book early, expect crowds, and check road conditions before you leave, especially on routes near rivers and landslide-prone slopes.

🌊 Budhi Gandaki, still developing

Our latest reports from Gorkha put the missing at five, with the river still above its danger level on Sunday. Figures vary by outlet. Follow NDRRMA and your ward office for updates instead of forwarded messages.

📅 Dashain dates to keep: Phulpati on Saturday, October 17. Vijaya Dashami, the main tika day, falls on Wednesday, October 21 by most calendars.

*The data presented below are from the official sites of NEPSE, NASDAQ and London Bullion Market Association respectively.

🇳🇵 NEPSE Last confirmed close: 2,591.80 on Friday, up 0.67% from 2,574.65. Monday's close wasn't available when we went to press. Government offices close October 17 to 23 for Dashain, so check the exchange's holiday notice before planning trades.

🇺🇸 Wall Street Friday: Nasdaq 27,366.17. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%. US stocks traded Monday while the Treasury market was closed for the holiday. Today's test: JPMorgan's earnings.

🥇 Gold About $4,194 per ounce at last report. In Nepal, fine gold stood at Rs 296,500 per tola on Sunday.

🥈 Silver About $60.70 per ounce at last report. Nepal's domestic rate rose Rs 35 per tola on Sunday.

On Friday, Trump reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions on its diesel, aimed at easing high fuel prices. Critics say the extra diesel isn't expected to change global prices, but it will bring Russia billions to fund its war. White House officials told Axios that Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are damaging Zelensky's relationship with Trump more than they hurt Russia.

Zelensky used Monday's Warsaw speech to urge European leaders to make Washington understand that an energy ceasefire and security guarantees are needed in practice, not only on social media.

Why it matters: Europe is being asked to fill a gap between US announcements and what happens on the ground. For Nepal, the fuel-price consequences arrive through India.

Claude Haiku 5.5, launched October 7, costs $0.10 per million input tokens and $0.50 per million output tokens for prompts up to 100,000 tokens, which Anthropic says is roughly 75% cheaper than its predecessor. It adds adjustable "effort controls" so builders can trade cost for intelligence, and it is available on the Claude Platform, AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure. Rival OpenAI's GPT-6 rollout puts the lighter Luna model on its free tiers, and OpenAI says its Instant answers begin 44% sooner on web-search questions (OpenAI's own measurement).

Why it matters: cheap models are most useful for high-volume jobs such as summarising documents, sorting support tickets and querying databases. For a Nepali startup, the question shifts from "can we afford it?" to "what should we build?"

(Disclosure: Anthropic makes the assistant that helped produce this newsletter.)

JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with analysts expecting about $5.98 a share on roughly $51.1 billion in revenue, and the stock expected to move about 3.3% either way. US inflation (CPI) and the Fed's Beige Book arrive Wednesday, and TSMC reports Thursday as a test of the AI chip trade. Last week the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, and markets were pricing roughly a 25% chance of an October Fed hike and a full hike by December.

Why it matters: a hot CPI reading raises the odds of a hike. Higher US rates mean a stronger dollar, and Nepal pays for fuel in dollars.

What’s your ultimate Dashain mood? 🪁

Reply with A, B or C:

Answers just below. No peeking. 👇

📖 Read: Euronews' account of Zelensky's Warsaw speech, for the gap between the announcement and the battlefield.

🎧 Listen: any short explainer on how Nepal Oil Corporation sets fuel prices from Indian Oil's rates.

📱 Follow: NDRRMA's official channels for flood warnings along the Budhi Gandaki and Trishuli.

Moratorium (say it: mor-uh-TOR-ee-um)

Meaning: an agreed pause on an activity, usually for a set period, such as a pause on attacks on energy sites.

Example: "Russia says it will respect the moratorium only if Ukraine stops striking its refineries."

For business/promotions, hit us up at: [email protected]

Made it this far? Reply and tell us what you want unpacked tomorrow — we read every message.