Brazil voted, the Fed's odds just flipped, and a disease outbreak that's been building in Nepal for months finally deserves your attention.

Brazilians voted Sunday in the first round of their presidential election, and as expected, nobody crossed the 50% threshold needed to win outright. President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro now head to a runoff on October 25, the sixth straight Brazilian presidential election to go to a second round since 2002.

What the first round actually settled: going in, final polling had Lula around 40-46% and Bolsonaro around 36-43%, a spread wide enough that analysts expected the first-round margin itself to signal momentum heading into the runoff. (This edition went to press before Brazil's official first-round tallies were finalized; check a live results source for the confirmed numbers and margin.)

Why the runoff is the real contest: Brazil's Congress also turned over entirely in Sunday's vote, all 513 lower-house seats and 54 of 81 Senate seats, and early indications pointed to gains for Bolsonaro-aligned parties regardless of the presidential outcome. That matters because it shapes how much room whoever wins the presidency actually has to govern. Prediction markets, for what it's worth, had priced Bolsonaro as the stronger favorite to win the overall runoff even while trailing Lula in first-round polling, a sign traders expect right-leaning voters to consolidate more efficiently in round two.

Why it matters beyond Brazil: as Latin America's largest economy, how this resolves will influence commodity markets, regional alignment, and the broader global tilt between left- and right-leaning governments heading into 2027.

While floods and avalanches have dominated headlines, a quieter public health crisis has been spreading largely unnoticed. Japanese encephalitis has now been confirmed in 131 people across Nepal this year, with 28 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health and Population's Family Welfare Division. The disease has reached 90 local levels across 37 districts, and 87% of those infected had not been vaccinated.

JE is a mosquito-borne viral infection that inflames the brain, kills roughly a fifth to a third of those who develop severe illness, and leaves up to half of survivors with lasting neurological damage. Most of those affected this year live near paddy fields or pig farms, the classic conditions that sustain the Culex mosquitoes that carry the virus. Health officials have launched vaccination drives targeting people over 30, since Nepal's routine immunization program has historically only covered children, leaving an entire generation of adults unprotected.

Why this deserves more attention than it's getting: JE has killed more people in Nepal this year than most single natural disasters, just more slowly and in smaller, scattered numbers that don't generate the same headlines as a flood or avalanche. If you know anyone working in agriculture in the Terai, especially those over 30, this is worth a direct conversation about vaccination.

Elsewhere: the Nepali Congress's 15th General Convention is underway at Khula Manch in Kathmandu, with central working committee candidate nominations opening today. And internet service providers will discontinue low-cost, low-speed packages starting today, citing inflation and rising fibre and chipset costs tied partly to global AI-driven demand.

*The data presented below are from the official sites of NEPSE, NASDAQ and London Bullion Market Association respectively.

🇺🇸 Nasdaq: rose Friday as the weak September jobs report reduced the odds of an October rate hike; futures were mixed in early Monday trading as investors weighed Brazil's election alongside the Fed outlook.

🥇 Gold: around $4,182 an ounce as of Friday's close, with a softer dollar from the jobs miss offering some support.

🥈 Silver: around $61 an ounce as of Friday's close, broadly steady.

Covered above — Brazil's runoff-bound election. See Main Story.

The Trump administration has launched an AI "Super Intelligence Force," a new coordinating body reporting directly to the president and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. Its stated mandate is coordinating federal engagement with consumers, public-interest groups, religious organizations, infrastructure providers, and AI companies themselves. The White House hasn't yet disclosed a budget, timeline, or reporting structure.

Why it matters: this is a notable escalation in how directly the White House is positioning itself in AI policy, coming just days after Anthropic's leaked IPO filing and OpenAI's scrapped model put AI safety concerns squarely in the headlines. Whether this becomes a substantive regulatory body or a largely symbolic gesture will depend heavily on the budget and authority it's eventually given.

Friday's weak jobs report has sharply repriced expectations for the Fed's October 28 decision. Prediction markets now put roughly 82-83% odds on the Fed holding rates steady, with only about 19% odds of another hike, a dramatic shift from earlier in the week when a second consecutive hike looked like the base case.

Why it matters: this is the clearest sign yet that the Fed's recent hiking cycle, which began with September's surprise increase, may already be running into the limits of what a softening labor market can absorb. If the Fed does hold steady, it would mark a pause rather than a reversal, inflation is still running above target, but it would ease some of the pressure that's pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and mortgage rates above 7%.

Last week's question on Nepal's labor market diversification is still collecting replies. We'll share results soon.

New question: Did you know about Nepal's Japanese encephalitis outbreak before this edition? Reply with A, B or C:

Answers below. No peeking. 👇

Case fatality rate (say it: KAYSS fuh-TAL-ih-tee rate)

Meaning: the percentage of confirmed cases of a disease that result in death, a key measure doctors use to gauge how dangerous an outbreak actually is.

Example: "Japanese encephalitis has a case fatality rate as high as a third among severe cases, which is part of why health officials are pushing adult vaccination so hard."

For business/promotions, hit us up at: [email protected]

Made it this far? Reply and tell us what you want unpacked tomorrow — we read every message.