Today Latin America's largest democracy decides whether its president gets a fourth term, while back home a stretch of highway turned tragic overnight. Here's your Sunday.

Roughly 220 million Brazilians head to the polls today in the first round of a presidential election that pits 80-year-old incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was barred from running after being convicted of plotting a coup.

The numbers going in: polling has been a near-dead heat for weeks. Datafolha's final survey had Lula leading the first round 40% to 36%, with a simulated runoff at 47-45 in Lula's favor, well within the margin of error. Brazilian law requires an outright majority to win in round one; no candidate has crossed that bar in any election since 2002, so a runoff on October 25 is considered close to certain.

What's really on the ballot: it's not just the presidency. Brazilians are also electing all 513 lower-house seats, 54 of 81 Senate seats, and governors in all 26 states and the Federal District, meaning today's results will shape how much room the next president actually has to govern, regardless of who wins.

Why it matters beyond Brazil: as Latin America's largest economy and a major agricultural exporter, the outcome has real consequences for global food and commodity prices, and for how firmly the region tilts left or right heading into 2027. Both candidates carry roughly 50% personal disapproval ratings, a sign of just how polarized and exhausted the electorate is.

When to expect results: polls close in the evening Brazil time (late night in Nepal), with first official counts typically arriving a few hours after. Don't expect a final call by the time you're reading this.

Six people were killed and at least 10 injured early Saturday morning when a Nepalgunj-to-Kathmandu passenger bus lost control on a downhill stretch of the East-West Highway at Daunne, in Nawalpur district, and overturned into a roadside drain. The bus was carrying 17-18 passengers; police say the driver, who was among those killed, lost control of the vehicle. The injured were taken to Madhyabindu Provincial Hospital, with one passenger referred to Chitwan for more serious head injuries.

Against that grim news, one genuinely good development: Nepal's monsoon has now withdrawn from four provinces, with the national weather office expecting it to clear remaining areas in the coming days. After a season that brought catastrophic August flooding, a mid-September avalanche disaster, and the Baglung landslides, an early end to active monsoon weather is a real, if modest, relief heading into Dashain.

On the diplomatic front: Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle has traveled to Washington, DC, leading a Nepali delegation at the invitation of World Bank Group President Ajay Banga. Meetings scheduled for October 5-6 will cover reconstruction financing, bilateral assistance, and Nepal's push to exit the Financial Action Task Force's grey list, a designation that raises the cost and friction of international banking for Nepali institutions.

*The data presented below are from the official sites of NEPSE, NASDAQ and London Bullion Market Association respectively.

🇳🇵 NEPSE: closed Friday at 2,587.25, down 11.90 points (0.46%).

🇺🇸 Nasdaq: rose Friday as the weak jobs report reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike.

🥇 Gold: around $4,182 an ounce as of Friday's close.

🥈 Silver: around $61 an ounce as of Friday's close.

Covered above — Brazil's first-round presidential election. See Main Story.

After a turbulent week, including Anthropic's leaked IPO filing, OpenAI's scrapped model, and Amazon's nuclear power deal, the AI news cycle slowed over the weekend. No major new developments to report.

Friday's surprisingly weak US jobs report (+29,000 vs. ~90,000 expected) has reset expectations heading into this week. Markets now see a meaningfully higher chance the Fed holds steady, or even signals a dovish tilt, at its October 28 meeting, a reversal from earlier in the week when a second hike looked likely.

What to watch this week: Tesla's delivery beat and the jobs miss are pulling markets in different directions, growth optimism from one, caution from the other, so expect choppier trading than usual as investors try to reconcile both signals.

Last week's question on the Fed's October decision is still collecting replies, especially relevant now after Friday's jobs data. We'll share results soon.

New question: Should Nepal diversify its foreign labor markets beyond its current handful of destination countries? Reply with A, B or C:

Answers just below. No peeking. 👇

Runoff (say it: RUN-off)

Meaning: a second round of voting held when no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, pitting the top two finishers against each other.

Example: "Every Brazilian presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff, and this year looks very likely to be no different."

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